GLOBE EARLY LOOK: First Real Poll of CD8 Has Good News for Hamadeh

In a three-way primary, Abraham Hamadeh is leading with 31%, Blake Masters is at 24%, and Speaker of the Arizona House Ben Toma is at 11%.

That news will be well received by Team Abe, not only because of an early lead, but because that lead stands against a ‘22 Senate candidate who spent eight figures on name recognition and a current Speaker of the House.

The head to head matchups are equally telling.

Hamadeh vs. Blake is 36-27. Hamadeh vs. Toma is 41-12. And Blake vs. Ben Toma is 42-15.

The poll was conducted by National Public Affairs, a firm founded by Justin Clark, Trump’s Deputy National Political Director in 2016; Bill Stepien, Trump’s Campaign Manager in 2020; and Sean Dollman, who’s got deep roots in Arizona politics, including a stint as Deputy State Treasurer. The connections of this firm to Trump may prove meaningful as any GOP candidates will surely seek the endorsement of the former president and frontrunner for the 2024 nomination.

The universe was 301 registered Republicans and unaffiliated voters in Congressional District 8, with 75% GOP registration and 25% Independent.

Hamadeh, the 2022 GOP nominee in 2022, is the only announced GOP candidate so far. But both Masters and Toma have been rumored to be looking at the solid red seat since Lesko announced she wouldn’t seek re-election in 2024.

The net favorables for the three tested candidates, shook out as follows. Hamadeh at +34, Masters at +21, and Toma at +8. Net favorable simply means the number of voters surveyed who have a positive impression of the candidate minus the number who have a negative impression. The higher the number, the better liked the candidate.